Lie there, my art. Wipe thou thine eyes; have comfort.
The direful spectacle of the wreck, which touch'd
The very virtue of compassion in thee,
I have with such provision in mine art
So safely ordered that there is no soul--
No, not so much perdition as an hair
Betid to any creature in the vessel
Which thou heard'st cry, which thou saw'st sink. Sit down;
For thou must now know farther.
The Tempest. Act ii. Sc. 2
Here's the deal:
Being mildly obsessed with Lost, I've been pondering a possible scientific
causes for the plane to have trouble with its radio and navigation equipment.
A dim memory surfaced and last night, in chat with Mithril, draub and
Abraxas, I presented a half-way formed theory which could answer to the
why of the crash - if not really exactly how (those 30,000 ft in 60 seconds
or so bother me a bit).
Mithril tossed a couple of links at me, and both draub and Abraxas asked
pertinent questions, with the end result being: solar phenomena could
perfectly well explain the malfunctioning radio and navigation equipment.
Solar phenomena have been occurring for eons, but they have only recently
been linked to their effects on Earth - from climate to disruptions on
the magnetic fields to radiation, etc. Stanford University has a neat
chart of solar events and it's respective effects on technology, as well
as links to descriptions for each. (solar-center.stanford.edu/weather.html)
In this table we see that there are several solar events which effectively
affect communications, navigation and radio, may damage satellites, and
more. The three that work better for the purposes of the show are CME
(Coronal Mass Ejections), Solar Flares and Strong Solar Winds. I personally
like solar flares.
From spaceweather.com/glossary...asses.html
-A solar flare is an explosion on the Sun that happens when energy stored
in twisted magnetic fields (usually above sunspots) is suddenly released.
Flares produce a burst of radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum,
from radio waves to x-rays and gamma-rays.
-Scientists classify solar flares according to their x-ray brightness
in the wavelength range 1 to 8 Angstroms. There are 3 categories: X-class
flares are big; they are major events that can trigger planet-wide radio
blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms. M-class flares are medium-sized;
they generally cause brief radio blackouts that affect Earth's polar regions.
Minor radiation storms sometimes follow an M-class flare. Compared to
X- and M-class events, C-class flares are small with few noticeable consequences
here on Earth.
This is a picture or a solar flare:
solar-center.stanford.edu...02245b.jpg
From the article "Solar Flare Could Disrupt Technology," in
pcmagazine (www.pcmag.com/article2/0,...74,00.asp)
dated Nov. 24, 2003:
"Set in motion by an eruption of gas on the sun, an enormous space
storm -known as a coronal mass ejection, or CME- was headed toward earth
Friday afternoon, and it could cause problems with satellites, cell phones,
pagers, and other technological equipment. The storm has already interfered
with high-frequency airline communications and power grids.
"According to the NOAA, the sunspot already produced a major solar
flare earlier in the week, causing a radio blackout on October 19 at 12:50
pm EDT.
"This could have an impact on phone and pager networks that tie into
satellites as well as satellite-based radio and Internet services. Satellites
aside, the storm could directly affect individual telephone, pager, radio
signals, and other wireless signals."
There's of course the obligatory denial by cell phone companies, how there'd
be "no degradation in service" because the majority of their
towers are on the ground. To which: in the middle of the Pacific, there
ain't any such towers, so whatever killed the plane's radio could easily
kill a cell phone signal. And let's remember that X-class solar flares
can trigger planet-wide radio blackouts and long lasting radiation storms.
According to an article in the Science at Nasa website, in July 14th,
2000 "one of the most powerful solar flares in the current solar
cycle" was recorded. "According to NOAA space weather prediction
scales, an S3 storm can cause the following effects on satellites: single-event
upsets, noise in imaging systems, permanent damage to exposed components/detectors,
and decrease of solar panel currents" (science.nasa.gov/headline...ul_2m.htm)
Let me repeat this, since it makes me very happy: such a storm may cause
permanent damage to exposed components in satellites. Doesn't this practically
guarantee our survivors a long sojourn in their island?
Following links from the Windows to the Universe website (www.windows.ucar.edu)
we find out that short radio waves are used by search and rescue, police,
military, etc., and that these are affected by solar phenomena:
"Space weather disturbances have major and dramatic consequences
for short wave communications: Sudden & large communication disturbances
occur on the dayside immediately following solar flares. This is because
enhanced D region ionization is produced there by the elevated xrays &
UV associated with the flare. The enhanced D region ionization absorbs
the short waves. These events are called short wave fadeouts and they
last a few minutes to a few hours."
"Short wave fadeouts last for a few minutes to a few hours and are
the most severe in the equatorial regions where the Sun is most directly
overhead."
I can be completely off base here, but depending on how long the navigational
system was out, and whether the sun was directly overhead (thus making
it useless to establish course), solar flares and accompanying phenomena
can explain both the instruments failure, the transceiver not working,
maybe even damage to the equipment sending out the distress call in French.
That plane could also be much more off course than those 1000 miles the
pilot guesstimated right before being yanked out of the cockpit window,
i.e. closer to the Equator at the time of the crash than we've originally
thought?
Let the discussion begin!
Beto
not really scientifically minded, just very intrigued
azteclady
Very impressive and it will definitely be a hit with some of the people around here. It sounds like a possibility and probably a very good cause of the interference. I admire your persistence. I'll have to find the thread you guys were on and see if I can absorb some more scientific vibes.
I'm beginning to think though I'm a lost cause. Here lies the difference
between us: While you were researching and writing this, I was composing
a ballad based on the theme music to Gilligan's Island. What does that
tell you about me?
No matter how much science I read, no matter how good these real theories
are and how impressed I am, I'm still thinking portals and triangles and
rips in time and space because... (see above), that's just me. I just
want more than science. I want adventure, the unexplained, the imaginary
world of possibility. If it's all science I can't have everything I want.
So I will hold out until the last possible moment.
Max and Pinnerman will probably love this..
JacksGirlfriend
True. He could have known what it was. However, I think it
is well within Sawyer's character to stand up and face a threat rather
than run from it, especially if he had a gun.
Sarahs Monkey
I would have to point out that the radiation to knock out communications would not have to be solar in origin. Nuclear blasts or an electomagnetic pulse on the plane would have similar (and probably more severe) effects on the plane
Radagast de Brun
A EMP pulse would have affected the plane more than what
would of happen. The engine would have not been running when it crashed.
If a EMP happen the engine would have been dead due to the control system
being fried.
MacLeod
A nuclear weapon induced EMP has been a possible, and largely unaddressed, security threat since the start of the Cold War. During the Cold War the threat was "addressed" under the umbrella theory of deterrence. Only one nation (and later a handful of nations) could be responsible and it would trigger nuclear retaliation. These days the major threat comes from terrorist groups, not nation states, and deterrence is ineffective.
It's possible an EMP could have caused the radio failure and disrupted
navigation if it were far enough away from the point of origin. Perhaps
it would effect the plane more mildly, more along the lines of a solar
flare. High altidude tests have been conducted:
"The U.S. military first witnessed this phenomenon after a series
of high-altitude nuclear tests in the Johnston Atoll in 1962 generated
a disruption in electronic equipment in Hawaii, nearly 1,000 miles away.
According to reports, the EMP interrupted radio broadcasts, caused streetlights
to malfunction and burglar alarms to sound, and resulted in electronic
failures across the islands despite their great distance from the test
site. "
www.heritage.org/Research...bg1372.cfm
Hawaii suffered effects, but there's no mention of planes dropping from
the sky.
However, if a plane encounters the brunt of an EMP the results would be
catastrophic:
"An EMP can have devastating consequences for developed countries,
because any metallic conductor in the area affected becomes a "receiver"
for the powerful energy burst released by the blast. Such receivers include
anything with electronic wiring--from airplanes and automobiles to computers,
railroad tracks, and communication lines. If systems connected to these
receivers are not protected, they will be damaged by the intense energy
pulse. Indeed, depending on the strength of the pulse and the vulnerability
of the equipment, the effects could range from interrupted phone conversations
and radio interference to the melting of components in every type of electrical
system."
If they were in a position for the plane's electronics to melt, the personal
electronics would have melted too. Since Sayid isn't having that problem,
we can extrapolate that the Lost plane didn't experience the most extreme
EMP consequences.
So, was it an EMP? The answer, shockingly, is "maybe"
I'm inclined to believe the crash is related to a solar incident because
those are more likely to occur and easier to explain. I'm in Occam's Razor
mode....at least for the moment.
Mithril379
That summary is pretty much why I disregarded EMP early on.
Transiever, Boone's cell phone (just couldn't get a signal to make it
useful), and Hurley's CD player / walkman have all shown to be working.
The transiever *might* be EMP hardened, but the cell phone and CD player
/ walkman would not be.
draub
Hmm...
Jacks Girlfriend knows us all to well. "This topic's going to be
a hit!" She knows all us aviation enthusiasts live for these topics!
Good idea. The idea had crossed my mine, but I didn't have near enough
evidence. I don't think EMP either due to what draub said. The engine
would've shut down, we know that.
My question is, how would the solar flare cause the heavy turbulence?
Even if the instruments went out, pilots can fly without them, and it
wouldn't have caused all the shaking Oceanic Flight 173 went through.
(Tonight's Ep: Jack's at the Oceanic gate in Australia and we hear "boarding
for Oceanic 173 to Los Angeles" or something in the background...
Might be wrong, sorry!)
Interesting thoughts here. Fun, fun, fun.
very lost indeed
